Predictions For 2017

One of my favourite bloggers makes an annual habit of creating a large number of predictions for the coming year, with probability estimates, and then judging himself at the end of the year on how accurate his predictions were. I like the idea, so I'm going to give it a shot myself. Allowed confidence levels are 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 95%, and 99%.

CANADIAN POLITICS
1) Maxime Bernier will win the CPC leadership - 50%
2) Kellie Leitch will not win the CPC leadership - 80%
3) There will be 5 or fewer candidates on the final CPC leadership ballot - 60%
4) Jason Kenney will win the PCAA leadership - 90%
5) The PCAA and Wildrose parties will not have begun any official merger process - 70%
6) There will be no Danielle Smith-style defection of multiple Wildrose MLAs to the PCAA(or vice-versa) - 90%
7) There will be less than 3 candidates who formally register for the federal NDP leadership - 80%
8) The expected 2017-18 deficit announced in the 2017 federal budget will be higher than predicted in the 2016 budget($29.0 billion) - 70%
9) The expected 2017-18 deficit announced in the 2017 Ontario budget will be higher than predicted in the 2016 budget(balanced) - 70%
10) Approval of the performance of Justin Trudeau will be below 50% in at least one major scientific poll - 80%

GLOBAL POLITICS
11) The UK will invoke Article 50 and begin the formal Brexit process - 95%
12) Theresa May will remain PM of the UK - 99%
13) There will be no second referendum on Brexit, actual or planned - 99%
14) The UK will initiate public talks with at least five non-EU nations for free trade deals - 80%
15) No public process for a CANZUK free trade/free movement agreement will have begun - 80%
16) No deal will be reached between the UK and the EU on the terms of Brexit - 95%
17) No other nation will decide to leave the EU or Eurozone - 80%
18) Marine Le Pen will make it to the French Presidential runoff election - 60%
19) Marine Le Pen will not win the Presidency of France - 95%
20) Angela Merkel will be re-elected Chancellor of Germany - 70%
21) There will be at least one explicitly Islamic terrorist attack killing 50+ people in the OECD - 70%
22) There will be no terrorist attack killing 500+ people in the OECD - 90%
23) ISIS will remain a de facto nation with control of at least some territory - 80%
24) The US will continue to attack ISIS(at least until all their territory is lost) - 90%
25) The US will not begin any substantial new conflicts(Libya 2011 or larger) - 80%
26) Approval of the performance of Donald Trump will be above 50% in at least one major scientific poll in the last three months of the year - 80%
27) The US Senate will eliminate the filibuster for at least some votes - 70%
28) The US will withdraw some form of support from the anti-Russian nations of Eastern Europe - 80%
29) No nuclear weapons will be used against civilian targets - 95%
30) At least one world leader will be elected on a populist campaign routinely mentioned alongside Trump and Brexit - 80%

MAJOR EVENTS
31) Using the same methodology as my discussion of 2015-16 celebrity deaths, at least 10 celebrities will die - 90%
32) Canada will not have a natural disaster as devastating as the 2016 Aberta wildfires - 80%
33) No major green energy breakthrough(>50% improvement in output per dollar) - 90%
34) Global average temperature is higher than 2016 - 80%
35) No natural disaster will kill 10,000 or more people - 80%
36) No natural disaster will kill 100 or more people in the OECD - 90%
37) There will be at least one computer security breach affecting 50 million or more accounts - 80%
38) No film released in 2017 will have a global box-office gross over $1.5B - 50%
39) The MSCI All-Cap World Index index will increase faster than inflation in USD - 60%
40) 2017 will be the most prosperous year in human history - 95%

PERSONAL LIFE
41) I will be married - 95%
42) Our wedding will be under budget - 70%
43) I will have a full-time job - 95%
44) I will have a permanent full-time job - 80%
45) I will no longer be doing financial plans as a side job - 70%
46) I will still be posting Friday Night Videos - 95%
47) I will be making regular blog posts - 70%
48) I will have a new desktop computer - 80%
49) I will have my CFP and CFA - 80%
50) I will complete the design of at least one game - 60%